PROYECCION FUTURA, BASADA EN UN MODELO PARAMETRICO PARA LA EXTRAPOLACION TEMPORAL DE LOS CASOS CONFIRMADOS Y ACUMULADOS-DIARIOS DE SARS-CoV-2, TOTALES PARA ESPAÑA
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200316/474173678153/coronavirus-covid-19-estacional-trilla.html
04/05/2020
Recerca
Providing the authorities with information of the short-term behaviour of several variables on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is the main goal of an initiative promoted by the Spanish Committee for Mathematics (CEMAT) in which several experts from the University of Barcelona are taking part.
With this aim, CEMAT calls all researchers who are interested in collaborating in this collective intelligence task and fight against the COVID-19 health crisis. Predictions by main researchers will contribute to make a cooperative predictor based on optimized combinations of predictions from different mathematic models disaggregated by autonomous communities. As part of this initiative, the precision of predictions will be evaluated according to the official database made by the Health Institute Carlos III.
Regarding the UB research field, participants in the initiative are the COVID-19 Prediction Group, led by the lecturer of the Faculty of Biology Antoni Monleón Getino, member of the Research Group on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics (GRBIO) -integrated in the platform Bioinformatics Barcelona (BIB)-, and the lecturer Jaume Canela Soler, from the Department of Basic Clinical Practice of the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences of the UB, and the Research Group on Risk in Insurance and Finance (RISKCENTER), led by Professor Montserrat Guillén, from the Department of Econometrics, Statistics, and Applied Economics of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the UB.
Created in 2004, CEMAT is an entity aimed to coordinate the mathematical activity in Spain related to the International Mathematical Union (IMU) and to promote the representation of the country in international mathematical organizations.
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab
57 2020-04-17 3968 192034 8
58 2020-04-18 3640 195674 8
59 2020-04-19 3341 199015 7
60 2020-04-20 3166 202181 7
61 2020-04-21 3052 205233 7
62 2020-04-22 2968 208201 6
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach
maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method.
Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach
maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method.
Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
Cases in Catalonia projection:
# VARIABLES:
"Maximum number of accumulated cases. Mean=26135,CI95% = (26021-26374)" "Parameters cum cases W(X). c=-13.6,d=3.9, day90%=42, day95%=45, day99%=50"
Cum Cases for the next days:
Cases for the next days:
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
Efron.r.squared=1 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red: real cases, magenta: predicted cases (with CI95%), cyan: real cum
deaths , blue: predicted cum deaths, yellow: real deaths.
Prediction of number of cases for the next days:
Dayly predictions for the next days in Catalonia: 24/3, 25/3, 26/3, ..
Yellow marker: maximum expected 1/4/20 - 4/4/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 1847 2116 2397 2685 2973 3251 3508 3733 3913 4036 4092 4072 3971 3790 3534 3213 2842 2441 2031 1632 1265 941 671 457 296 182 105 58 29 14 6 3)
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days: 1274 1314 1446 1555 1658 1751 1830 1892 1931 1944 1929 1884 1808 1702 1571 1418 1252 1079 907 744 595 466 358 271 203 153 115 88 68 54 42 33)
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 25 28 32 36 40 43 47 50 52 54 55 54 53 51 47 43 38 33 27 22 17 13 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
[53] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days: 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 19 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )
Severity Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0)
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days: 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )
⇢DAY: 2020/3/22 extraordinary measures in Spain
MORE INFORMATION OF PREDICTION, MODELS ABOUT CORONAVIRUS IN SPAIN
2020/03/16
Consult daily data in: https://www.epdata.es/datos/coronavirus-china-datos-graficos/498
Tots els mapes per seguir l'evolució del coronavirus a Catalunya, Espanya i el món - http://ara.cat/_90009a4c?s=e
Catalonia data of cases, deaths and severity. https://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/198469/grafic/interactiu/aixi/evoluciona/coronavirus/catalunya/dia/dia
Wikipedia. Coronavirus in Spain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Spain
Institute Superiori di Sanita. Statistics of Coronavirus in Italy (Statrification by age and sex):. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/Italy_medical_cases
03/05/2020:
Si analizamos los datos en conjunto, todo ello resulta en una mortalidad general del 2,3%, una cifra que se alinea con los datos que ya se venían manejando. No obstante, La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) ha informado que esa tasa de mortalidad se corresponde más con la realidad de Wuhan que con la del resto del mundo, donde el índice se queda en un 0,7%."
2020/03/18. Climical trial solidarity WHO. What is the best strategy to stop coronavirus? https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200318/ensayo-clinico-mundial-tratamiento-mas-eficaz-coronavirus-7895656
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200318/474249568746/oms-marcha-ensayo-clinico-mundial-tratamiento-eficaz-coronavirus.html
2020/03/17: Imperial College of London prediction https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-03-17/un-informe-advierte-de-que-las-medidas-de-distanciamiento-social-podrian-ser-necesarias-hasta-18-meses.html
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
2020/03/17:Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
More cases than confirmed,
2020/03/17: New paper in Scence (Thanks Noelia Fernandez and Jordi García !)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221
2020/03/16: Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak - Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/global-time-varying-transmission.html
2020/03/15 Prediction coronavirus using Kalman filter: https://towardsdatascience.com/using-kalman-filter-to-predict-corona-virus-spread-72d91b74cc8
2020/03/16:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html
REFERENCES
DAILY FUTURE PROJECTION, BASED ON A PARAMETRIC MODEL FOR THE TEMPORARY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CONFIRMED AND ACCUMULATED-DAILY CASES OF SARS-CoV-2, TOTAL FOR SPAIN
Grupo de predicción COVID-19, Universidad de Barcelona (Facultad de Medicina, Facultad de Biología).
Antonio Monleon-Getino1,
3, 4, Jaume Canela-Soler2
1.Section of Statistics,
Departament of Genetics, Microbiology and Statistics, Faculty of Biology,
Univeristy of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
2.Section of Biostatistics. Clinical Foundations
Department, School of Medicine, Univeristy of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
3.Group of Researh in
Bioestatistics and Bioinformatics (GRBIO) , Barcelona, Spain
4.BIOST3. Group of
Researh in Clinical Bioestatistics, Bioinformatics and Data Science, Barcelona,
Spain
Email address: amonleong@ub.edu; jcanela@ub.eduThis model is based on the study: Next weeks of SARS-CoV-2: Projection model to predict time evolution scenarios of accumulated cases in Spain. Antonio Monleon-Getino, Jaume Canela-Soler. 2020 (pending of publication). For the computations we use library BDBiost3 (https://github.com/amonleong/BDSbiost3)BDSbiost3: Machine learning and advanced statistical methods for omic, categorical analysis and others. Library for R published in Github.
14/04/2020: See preprint in https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.09.20059881v1 Monleón Getino T, Canela-Soler J. (2020) Next weeks of SARS-CoV-2: Projection model to predict time evolution scenarios of accumulated cases in Spain MEDRXIV https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059881doi
Update of data on the total number of accumulated cases affected by SARS-CoV-2 confirmed in Spain.
Providing the authorities with information of the short-term behaviour of several variables on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is the main goal of an initiative promoted by the Spanish Committee for Mathematics (CEMAT) in which several experts from the University of Barcelona are taking part.
With this aim, CEMAT calls all researchers who are interested in collaborating in this collective intelligence task and fight against the COVID-19 health crisis. Predictions by main researchers will contribute to make a cooperative predictor based on optimized combinations of predictions from different mathematic models disaggregated by autonomous communities. As part of this initiative, the precision of predictions will be evaluated according to the official database made by the Health Institute Carlos III.
Regarding the UB research field, participants in the initiative are the COVID-19 Prediction Group, led by the lecturer of the Faculty of Biology Antoni Monleón Getino, member of the Research Group on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics (GRBIO) -integrated in the platform Bioinformatics Barcelona (BIB)-, and the lecturer Jaume Canela Soler, from the Department of Basic Clinical Practice of the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences of the UB, and the Research Group on Risk in Insurance and Finance (RISKCENTER), led by Professor Montserrat Guillén, from the Department of Econometrics, Statistics, and Applied Economics of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the UB.
Created in 2004, CEMAT is an entity aimed to coordinate the mathematical activity in Spain related to the International Mathematical Union (IMU) and to promote the representation of the country in international mathematical organizations.
PREDICTIONS
2020/04/02: Our research group (BIOST ·, GRBIO) subscribes to the cooperative covid19 forecasting initiative promoted by the CEMat (see http://matematicas.uclm.es/cemat/covid19/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/Prediccion_cooperativa.pdf)
⇢DAY: 2020/5/09 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 81 2020-05-09 2118 266781 4 3 0 0 5 82 2020-05-10 2055 268836 4 3 0 0 4 83 2020-05-11 2039 270875 4 3 0 0 4 84 2020-05-12 2026 272901 4 3 0 0 4 85 2020-05-13 2007 274908 4 3 0 0 4 86 2020-05-14 1967 276875 4 3 0 0 4 87 2020-05-15 1923 278798 4 3 0 0 4VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 habCases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 81 2020-05-09 402 54131 5 3 0 1 5 82 2020-05-10 396 54527 5 3 0 1 5 83 2020-05-11 405 54932 5 3 0 1 5 84 2020-05-12 415 55347 6 3 0 1 5 85 2020-05-13 412 55759 5 3 0 1 5 86 2020-05-14 400 56159 5 3 0 1 5 87 2020-05-15 388 56547 5 3 0 1 5VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/5/06 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
77 2020-05-06 2345 256027 5 4 0 1 5
78 2020-05-07 2355 258382 5 4 0 1 4
79 2020-05-08 2283 260665 5 4 0 1 4
80 2020-05-09 2195 262860 5 4 0 0 4
81 2020-05-10 2117 264977 4 4 0 0 4
82 2020-05-11 2067 267044 4 4 0 0 4
83 2020-05-12 2027 269071 4 4 0 0 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
77 2020-05-06 459 52549 6 4 0 1 6
78 2020-05-07 477 53026 6 4 0 1 5
79 2020-05-08 480 53506 6 3 0 1 6
80 2020-05-09 473 53979 6 3 0 1 6
81 2020-05-10 463 54442 6 3 0 1 5
82 2020-05-11 449 54891 6 3 0 1 5
83 2020-05-12 437 55328 6 3 0 1 5
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/5/05 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 76 2020-05-05 2102 252663 4 4 0 1 5 77 2020-05-06 2187 254850 5 4 0 1 5 78 2020-05-07 2219 257069 5 4 0 1 4 79 2020-05-08 2199 259268 5 4 0 1 4 80 2020-05-09 2141 261409 5 4 0 0 4 81 2020-05-10 2076 263485 4 4 0 0 4 82 2020-05-11 2023 265508 4 4 0 0 4VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 habCases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 76 2020-05-05 472 52270 6 4 0 1 7 77 2020-05-06 495 52765 7 4 0 1 6 78 2020-05-07 507 53272 7 4 0 1 5 79 2020-05-08 500 53772 7 3 0 1 6 80 2020-05-09 486 54258 6 3 0 1 6 81 2020-05-10 470 54728 6 3 0 1 6 82 2020-05-11 458 55186 6 3 0 1 5VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/5/04 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 75 2020-05-04 2072 250373 4 4 0 1 5 76 2020-05-05 2153 252526 5 4 0 1 5 77 2020-05-06 2238 254764 5 4 0 1 5 78 2020-05-07 2254 257018 5 4 0 1 4 79 2020-05-08 2217 259235 5 4 0 1 4 80 2020-05-09 2147 261382 5 4 0 1 4 81 2020-05-10 2082 263464 4 4 0 0 4VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 habCases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 75 2020-05-04 475 51868 6 3 0 1 8 76 2020-05-05 489 52357 7 3 0 1 7 77 2020-05-06 511 52868 7 3 0 1 6 78 2020-05-07 518 53386 7 3 0 1 5 79 2020-05-08 508 53894 7 3 0 1 5 80 2020-05-09 491 54385 7 3 0 1 5 81 2020-05-10 475 54860 6 3 0 1 5VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/5/02 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
74 2020-05-02 2332 249454 5 4 0 1 5
75 2020-05-03 2323 251777 5 4 0 1 5
76 2020-05-04 2354 254131 5 4 0 1 5
77 2020-05-05 2365 256496 5 4 0 1 5
78 2020-05-06 2326 258822 5 4 0 1 4
79 2020-05-07 2262 261084 5 4 0 1 4
80 2020-05-08 2201 263285 5 4 0 1 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
74 2020-05-02 558 51819 7 3 0 1 5
75 2020-05-03 559 52378 7 4 0 1 5
76 2020-05-04 555 52933 7 4 0 1 5
77 2020-05-05 548 53481 7 4 0 1 4
78 2020-05-06 537 54018 7 3 0 1 4
79 2020-05-07 523 54541 7 3 0 1 4
80 2020-05-08 510 55051 7 3 0 1 4
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/5/01 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
72 2020-05-01 2807 245795 6 5 0 1 5
73 2020-05-02 2682 248477 6 5 0 1 5
74 2020-05-03 2577 251054 5 5 0 1 5
75 2020-05-04 2495 253549 5 5 0 1 5
76 2020-05-05 2422 255971 5 5 0 1 5
77 2020-05-06 2355 258326 5 5 0 1 5
78 2020-05-07 2290 260616 5 5 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
72 2020-05-01 564 50898 8 4 0 1 5
73 2020-05-02 589 51487 8 4 0 1 5
74 2020-05-03 602 52089 8 4 0 1 5
75 2020-05-04 598 52687 8 4 0 1 5
76 2020-05-05 582 53269 8 4 0 1 5
77 2020-05-06 565 53834 8 4 0 1 5
78 2020-05-07 550 54384 7 4 0 1 4
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/30 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
71 2020-04-30 3109 242476 7 5 0 1 6
72 2020-05-01 2986 245462 6 6 0 1 5
73 2020-05-02 2853 248315 6 7 0 1 5
74 2020-05-03 2775 251090 6 6 0 1 5
75 2020-05-04 2718 253808 6 6 0 1 5
76 2020-05-05 2668 256476 6 6 0 1 5
77 2020-05-06 2613 259089 6 6 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
71 2020-04-30 575 50518 8 4 0 1 6
72 2020-05-01 601 51119 8 4 0 1 6
73 2020-05-02 625 51744 8 4 0 1 5
74 2020-05-03 625 52369 8 4 0 1 5
75 2020-05-04 614 52983 8 4 0 1 5
76 2020-05-05 596 53579 8 4 0 1 5
77 2020-05-06 579 54158 8 4 0 1 5
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/29 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
70 2020-04-29 5151 250723 11 5 1 1 6
71 2020-04-30 4722 255445 10 6 0 1 6
72 2020-05-01 4029 259474 9 8 0 1 5
73 2020-05-02 3522 262996 7 8 0 1 5
74 2020-05-03 3360 266356 7 7 0 1 5
75 2020-05-04 3398 269754 7 7 0 1 5
76 2020-05-05 3453 273207 7 7 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
70 2020-04-29 649 50330 9 4 0 1 6
71 2020-04-30 654 50984 9 4 0 1 6
72 2020-05-01 669 51653 9 4 0 1 5
73 2020-05-02 666 52319 9 4 0 1 5
74 2020-05-03 653 52972 9 4 0 1 5
75 2020-05-04 635 53607 8 4 0 1 5
76 2020-05-05 620 54227 8 4 0 1 5
VARIABLES: DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES: nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia totales (Total cases predicted) nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/28 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
70 2020-04-28 5151 250723 11 5 1 1 6
71 2020-04-29 4722 255445 10 6 0 1 6
72 2020-04-30 4029 259474 9 8 0 1 5
73 2020-05-01 3522 262996 7 8 0 1 5
74 2020-05-02 3360 266356 7 7 0 1 5
75 2020-05-03 3398 269754 7 7 0 1 5
76 2020-05-04 3453 273207 7 7 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
70 2020-04-28 649 50330 9 4 0 1 6
71 2020-04-29 654 50984 9 4 0 1 6
72 2020-04-30 669 51653 9 4 0 1 5
73 2020-05-01 666 52319 9 4 0 1 5
74 2020-05-02 653 52972 9 4 0 1 5
75 2020-05-03 635 53607 8 4 0 1 5
76 2020-05-04 620 54227 8 4 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/27 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
No case data in the official statistics
Catalonia prediction of: 5.37 new cases / 100000 habitantes
Spain prediction of: 3.11 new cases / 100000 habitantes
⇢DAY: 2020/4/23 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
65 2020-04-24 4058 223820 9 1 0 1 5
66 2020-04-25 3747 227567 8 1 0 1 5
67 2020-04-26 3411 230978 7 1 0 1 5
68 2020-04-27 3195 234173 7 1 0 1 5
69 2020-04-28 3101 237274 7 1 0 1 4
70 2020-04-29 3078 240352 7 1 0 1 4
71 2020-04-30 3028 243380 6 1 0 1 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
65 2020-04-24 977 47548 13 4 1 1 6
66 2020-04-25 917 48465 12 4 1 1 6
67 2020-04-26 841 49306 11 4 0 1 5
68 2020-04-27 783 50089 10 3 0 1 5
69 2020-04-28 766 50855 10 3 0 1 5
70 2020-04-29 764 51619 10 3 0 1 5
71 2020-04-30 757 52376 10 3 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/22 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
64 2020-04-23 3521 216543 7 1 0 1 5
65 2020-04-24 3315 219858 7 1 0 1 5
66 2020-04-25 3123 222981 7 1 0 1 5
67 2020-04-26 2980 225961 6 1 0 1 4
68 2020-04-27 2899 228860 6 1 0 1 4
69 2020-04-28 2835 231695 6 1 0 1 4
70 2020-04-29 2771 234466 6 1 0 1 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
64 2020-04-23 810 45702 11 4 0 1 6
65 2020-04-24 772 46474 10 4 0 1 5
66 2020-04-25 750 47224 10 4 0 1 5
67 2020-04-26 726 47950 10 3 0 1 5
68 2020-04-27 705 48655 9 3 0 1 5
69 2020-04-28 692 49347 9 3 0 1 5
70 2020-04-29 679 50026 9 3 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/21 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
63 2020-04-22 3425 211812 7 1 0 1 5
64 2020-04-23 3243 215055 7 1 0 1 5
65 2020-04-24 3086 218141 7 1 0 1 5
66 2020-04-25 2964 221105 6 1 0 1 4
67 2020-04-26 2875 223980 6 1 0 1 4
68 2020-04-27 2802 226782 6 1 0 1 4
69 2020-04-28 2730 229512 6 1 0 1 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
63 2020-04-22 813 44615 11 5 0 1 6
64 2020-04-23 747 45362 10 4 0 1 6
65 2020-04-24 717 46079 10 4 0 1 5
66 2020-04-25 712 46791 9 4 0 1 5
67 2020-04-26 702 47493 9 3 0 1 5
68 2020-04-27 685 48178 9 3 0 1 5
69 2020-04-28 667 48845 9 3 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/20 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
TODAY THE PREDICTION IS WRONG, SOME CATALONIA VARIABLES [DEATHS, AND OTHERS] WERE REMOVED !
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 62 2020-04-21 3436 207612 7 NA NA NA NA 63 2020-04-22 3261 210873 7 NA NA NA NA 64 2020-04-23 3107 213980 7 NA NA NA NA 65 2020-04-24 2995 216975 6 NA NA NA NA 66 2020-04-25 2908 219883 6 NA NA NA NA 67 2020-04-26 2829 222712 6 NA NA NA NA 68 2020-04-27 2750 225462 6 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
62 2020-04-21 906 44018 12 NA NA NA NA
63 2020-04-22 855 44873 11 NA NA NA NA
64 2020-04-23 789 45662 11 NA NA NA NA
65 2020-04-24 737 46399 10 NA NA NA NA
66 2020-04-25 716 47115 10 NA NA NA NA
67 2020-04-26 707 47822 9 NA NA NA NA
68 2020-04-27 695 48517 9 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/19 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
TODAY THE PREDICTION IS WRONG, SOME CATALONIA VARIABLES [DEATHS, AND OTHERS] WERE REMOVED !
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
61 2020-04-20 3512 203720 7 NA NA NA NA
62 2020-04-21 3324 207044 7 NA NA NA NA
63 2020-04-22 3162 210206 7 NA NA NA NA
64 2020-04-23 3036 213242 6 NA NA NA NA
65 2020-04-24 2942 216184 6 NA NA NA NA
66 2020-04-25 2859 219043 6 NA NA NA NA
67 2020-04-26 2778 221821 6 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
61 2020-04-20 799 42475 11 NA NA NA NA
62 2020-04-21 752 43227 10 NA NA NA NA
63 2020-04-22 729 43956 10 NA NA NA NA
64 2020-04-23 705 44661 9 NA NA NA NA
65 2020-04-24 680 45341 9 NA NA NA NA
66 2020-04-25 664 46005 9 NA NA NA NA
67 2020-04-26 647 46652 9 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/18 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
TODAY THE PREDICTION IS WRONG, SOME CATALONIA VARIABLES [DEATHS, AND OTHERS] WERE REMOVED !
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 60 2020-04-19 3559 199501 8 NA NA NA NA 61 2020-04-20 3336 202837 7 NA NA NA NA 62 2020-04-21 3172 206009 7 NA NA NA NA 63 2020-04-22 3052 209061 6 NA NA NA NA 64 2020-04-23 2955 212016 6 NA NA NA NA 65 2020-04-24 2866 214882 6 NA NA NA NA 66 2020-04-25 2780 217662 6 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of
cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation
(percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
60 2020-04-19 834 41434 11 NA NA NA NA
61 2020-04-20 761 42195 10 NA NA NA NA
62 2020-04-21 724 42919 10 NA NA NA NA
63 2020-04-22 718 43637 10 NA NA NA NA
64 2020-04-23 709 44346 9 NA NA NA NA
65 2020-04-24 690 45036 9 NA NA NA NA
66 2020-04-25 670 45706 9 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/17 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
TODAY THE PREDICTION IS WRONG, SOME CATALONIA VARIABLES [DEATHS, AND OTHERS] WERE REMOVED !
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
59 2020-04-18 3624 195348 8 NA NA NA NA
60 2020-04-19 3394 198742 7 NA NA NA NA
61 2020-04-20 3214 201956 7 NA NA NA NA
62 2020-04-21 3077 205033 7 NA NA NA NA
63 2020-04-22 2968 208001 6 NA NA NA NA
64 2020-04-23 2877 210878 6 NA NA NA NA
65 2020-04-24 2788 213666 6 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
59 2020-04-18 954 40897 13 NA NA NA NA
60 2020-04-19 891 41788 12 NA NA NA NA
61 2020-04-20 815 42603 11 NA NA NA NA
62 2020-04-21 753 43356 10 NA NA NA NA
63 2020-04-22 728 44084 10 NA NA NA NA
64 2020-04-23 717 44801 10 NA NA NA NA
65 2020-04-24 706 45507 9 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/16 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
TODAY THE STATISTIC IS WRONG, SOME CATALONIA VARIABLES [DEATHS, AND OTHERS] WERE REMOVED !
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
| uci | hospitalizados | fallecidos | nuevos | confirmados |
| 7935 | 78069 | 20044 | 3968 | 192034 |
| 7943 | 78777 | 20465 | 3640 | 195674 |
| 7948 | 79445 | 20867 | 3341 | 199015 |
| 7952 | 80070 | 21254 | 3166 | 202181 |
| 7954 | 80651 | 21628 | 3052 | 205233 |
| 7956 | 81196 | 21989 | 2968 | 208201 |
| 2877 | 211078 |
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach
maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method.
Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
57 2020-04-17 814 39130 11 5 0 1 7
58 2020-04-18 761 39891 10 5 0 1 7
59 2020-04-19 723 40614 10 4 1 1 7
60 2020-04-20 698 41312 9 4 1 1 6
61 2020-04-21 673 41985 9 4 0 1 6
62 2020-04-22 653 42638 9 4 0 1 6
63 2020-04-23 633 43271 8 NA NA NA NA
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/15 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab
57 2020-04-17 3968 192034 8
58 2020-04-18 3640 195674 8
59 2020-04-19 3341 199015 7
60 2020-04-20 3166 202181 7
61 2020-04-21 3052 205233 7
62 2020-04-22 2968 208201 6
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical
yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach
maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method.
Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
57 2020-04-16 837 38191 11 5 0 1 7
58 2020-04-17 786 38977 10 5 0 1 7
59 2020-04-18 729 39706 10 4 1 1 7
60 2020-04-19 696 40402 9 4 1 1 6
61 2020-04-20 678 41080 9 4 0 1 6
62 2020-04-21 656 41736 9 4 0 1 6
63 2020-04-22 634 42370 8 4 0 1 6
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/14 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
56 2020-04-15 3803 181434 8 1 0 1 6
57 2020-04-16 3681 185115 8 1 0 1 5
58 2020-04-17 3481 188596 7 2 0 1 5
59 2020-04-18 3275 191871 7 2 0 1 5
60 2020-04-19 3131 195002 7 1 0 1 5
61 2020-04-20 3018 198020 6 1 0 1 4
62 2020-04-21 2918 200938 6 1 0 1 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
56 2020-04-15 852 37357 11 5 1 1 7
57 2020-04-16 838 38195 11 5 1 1 7
58 2020-04-17 790 38985 11 5 1 1 7
59 2020-04-18 733 39718 10 5 1 1 6
60 2020-04-19 698 40416 9 4 1 1 6
61 2020-04-20 674 41090 9 4 1 1 6
62 2020-04-21 655 41745 9 4 0 1 6
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/13 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab 55 2020-04-14 2719 175258 6 1 0 1 5 56 2020-04-15 2387 177645 5 0 0 1 5 57 2020-04-16 2109 179754 4 0 0 1 4 58 2020-04-17 1855 181609 4 0 0 1 4 59 2020-04-18 1618 183227 3 0 0 1 4 60 2020-04-19 1401 184628 3 0 0 0 3 61 2020-04-20 1208 185836 3 0 0 0 3
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
55 2020-04-14 557 35754 7 3 0 1 6
56 2020-04-15 490 36244 7 2 0 1 5
57 2020-04-16 452 36696 6 1 0 0 4
58 2020-04-17 417 37113 6 1 0 0 4
59 2020-04-18 372 37485 5 1 0 0 3
60 2020-04-19 323 37808 4 0 0 0 3
61 2020-04-20 279 38087 4 0 0 0 2
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/12 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
54 2020-04-13 3908 173402 8 3 0 1 6
55 2020-04-14 3796 177198 8 2 0 1 6
56 2020-04-15 3701 180899 8 2 0 1 5
57 2020-04-16 3593 184492 8 2 0 1 5
58 2020-04-17 3453 187945 7 2 0 1 5
59 2020-04-18 3312 191257 7 2 0 1 5
60 2020-04-19 3180 194437 7 2 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Vertical yellow line: today, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method. Sat = % saturation (percentage of maximum cases currently)
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
54 2020-04-13 872 35598 12 6 1 1 8
55 2020-04-14 836 36434 11 6 1 1 8
56 2020-04-15 819 37253 11 6 1 1 8
57 2020-04-16 803 38056 11 6 1 1 7
58 2020-04-17 776 38832 10 5 1 1 7
59 2020-04-18 745 39577 10 5 1 1 7
60 2020-04-19 716 40293 10 5 1 1 7
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/11 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
53 2020-04-12 4278 170295 9 4 0 1 7
54 2020-04-13 4138 174433 9 3 0 1 6
55 2020-04-14 3993 178426 8 2 0 1 6
56 2020-04-15 3854 182280 8 2 0 1 6
57 2020-04-16 3711 185991 8 2 0 1 6
58 2020-04-17 3569 189560 8 2 0 1 5
59 2020-04-18 3436 192996 7 2 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
53 2020-04-12 985 35012 13 6 1 1 9
54 2020-04-13 949 35961 13 6 1 1 9
55 2020-04-14 906 36867 12 6 1 1 8
56 2020-04-15 868 37735 12 6 1 1 8
57 2020-04-16 839 38574 11 6 1 1 8
58 2020-04-17 811 39385 11 5 1 1 7
59 2020-04-18 784 40169 10 5 1 1 7
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/9 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
51 2020-04-10 4163 161183 9 1 0 1 7
52 2020-04-11 3788 164971 8 1 0 1 7
53 2020-04-12 3405 168376 7 1 0 1 7
54 2020-04-13 3021 171397 6 0 0 1 6
55 2020-04-14 2656 174053 6 0 0 1 6
56 2020-04-15 2293 176346 5 0 0 1 5
57 2020-04-16 1983 178329 4 0 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
51 2020-04-10 911 32735 12 6 1 1 9
52 2020-04-11 829 33564 11 5 0 1 8
53 2020-04-12 746 34310 10 4 0 1 7
54 2020-04-13 660 34970 9 3 0 1 7
55 2020-04-14 582 35552 8 2 0 0 6
56 2020-04-15 503 36055 7 1 0 0 5
57 2020-04-16 439 36494 6 1 0 0 4
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/8 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression-2)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
50 2020-04-09 4791 157235 10 1 0 1 8
51 2020-04-10 4169 161404 9 1 0 1 8
52 2020-04-11 3616 165020 8 1 0 1 7
53 2020-04-12 3164 168184 7 0 0 1 7
54 2020-04-13 2797 170981 6 0 0 1 6
55 2020-04-14 2476 173457 5 0 0 1 6
56 2020-04-15 2179 175636 5 0 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATISTICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
50 2020-04-09 1103 32146 15 8 1 1 12
51 2020-04-10 961 33107 13 6 0 1 11
52 2020-04-11 845 33952 11 4 0 1 10
53 2020-04-12 750 34702 10 3 0 1 9
54 2020-04-13 672 35374 9 2 0 0 9
55 2020-04-14 604 35978 8 1 0 0 8
56 2020-04-15 541 36519 7 1 0 0 7
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/7 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Algorithm variation(*slow regression)
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
STATITICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
49 2020-04-08 4451 151139 9 2 0 1 8
50 2020-04-09 4000 155139 8 1 0 1 8
51 2020-04-10 3504 158643 7 1 0 1 8
52 2020-04-11 3006 161649 6 1 0 1 8
53 2020-04-12 2526 164175 5 0 0 1 8
54 2020-04-13 2143 166318 5 0 0 1 7
55 2020-04-14 1820 168138 4 0 0 1 7
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
STATITICAL TABLES:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
49 2020-04-07 1165 30812 16 5 1 1 15
50 2020-04-08 1100 31912 15 5 1 1 15
51 2020-04-09 1018 32930 14 4 1 1 16
52 2020-04-10 932 33862 12 3 0 1 16
53 2020-04-11 849 34711 11 2 0 1 16
54 2020-04-12 780 35491 10 2 0 1 16
55 2020-04-13 715 36206 10 1 0 0 17
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/6 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
48 2020-04-07 2905 143413 6 5 0 1 6
49 2020-04-08 2441 145854 5 4 0 1 5
50 2020-04-09 2039 147893 4 4 0 1 5
51 2020-04-10 1701 149594 4 3 0 1 5
52 2020-04-11 1415 151009 3 3 0 1 4
53 2020-04-12 1185 152194 3 3 0 1 4
54 2020-04-13 998 153192 2 2 0 1 3
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
48 2020-04-07 1344 29667 18 7 1 2 9
49 2020-04-08 1271 30938 17 6 1 2 8
50 2020-04-09 1175 32113 16 6 1 2 8
51 2020-04-10 1066 33179 14 5 1 2 7
52 2020-04-11 948 34127 13 4 1 1 6
53 2020-04-12 838 34965 11 3 0 1 6
54 2020-04-13 736 35701 10 3 0 1 5
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/5 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
prediction next week:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
47 2020-04-06 3107 138137 7 3 0 1 5
48 2020-04-07 2423 140560 5 3 0 1 5
49 2020-04-08 1863 142423 4 2 0 1 5
50 2020-04-09 1421 143844 3 2 0 1 4
51 2020-04-10 1074 144918 2 1 0 1 4
52 2020-04-11 794 145712 2 1 0 0 4
53 2020-04-12 569 146281 1 1 0 0 3
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
prediction next week:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
47 2020-04-06 795 27619 11 8 1 2 8
48 2020-04-07 645 28264 9 7 0 1 7
49 2020-04-08 514 28778 7 6 0 1 5
50 2020-04-09 401 29179 5 5 0 1 4
51 2020-04-10 305 29484 4 4 0 1 4
52 2020-04-11 224 29708 3 3 0 1 3
53 2020-04-12 160 29868 2 2 0 0 2
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/4 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
prediction next week:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
46 2020-04-05 5733 136490 12 6 1 2 9
47 2020-04-06 5243 141733 11 5 1 2 9
48 2020-04-07 4791 146524 10 5 1 1 9
49 2020-04-08 4350 150874 9 5 0 1 10
50 2020-04-09 3917 154791 8 4 0 1 10
51 2020-04-10 3491 158282 7 4 0 1 10
52 2020-04-11 3081 161363 7 3 0 1 10
VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia ESPANA
totales (Total cases predicted) ESPANA
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
death.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
prediction next week:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
46 2020-04-05 1484 27516 20 15 2 2 13
47 2020-04-06 1380 28896 18 14 1 2 14
48 2020-04-07 1287 30183 17 13 1 2 14
49 2020-04-08 1180 31363 16 13 1 2 14
50 2020-04-09 1065 32428 14 11 1 2 15
51 2020-04-10 947 33375 13 10 1 2 15
52 2020-04-11 837 34212 11 9 1 2 15
VARIABLES:
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
totales (Total cases predicted)
nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/3 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
45 2020-04-04 6240 126143 13 6 1 2 8
46 2020-04-05 5750 131893 12 6 1 2 9
47 2020-04-06 5258 137151 11 6 1 2 9
48 2020-04-07 4794 141945 10 5 1 1 10
49 2020-04-08 4350 146295 9 5 1 1 10
50 2020-04-09 3915 150210 8 4 0 1 10
51 2020-04-10 3490 153700 7 4 0 1 10
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
-nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
-Totales (Total cases predicted)
-nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
-p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
-UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
-deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
-Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
Cases in Catalonia projection:
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a paametric method, magenta green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%) using a non parametric method
Date.NextDays nuevos totales nuevos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
45 2020-04-04 1604 27050 21 17 2 3 12
46 2020-04-05 1508 28558 20 16 2 2 12
47 2020-04-06 1399 29957 19 14 1 2 12
48 2020-04-07 1292 31249 17 14 1 2 11
49 2020-04-08 1180 32429 16 13 1 2 11
50 2020-04-09 1061 33490 14 11 1 2 11
51 2020-04-10 946 34436 13 10 1 2 11
DESCRIPCION DE LAS VARIABLES:
-nuevos = casos nuevos de ese dia
-Totales (Total cases predicted)
-nuevos.100hab: casos nuevos por 100000 hab
-p.Hosp.100hab: pacientes hospitalizados por 100000 hab
-UCI.100hab : pacientes UCI por 100000 hab
-deathth.100hab: pacientes fallecidos por 100000 hab
-Recup.100hab: pacientes recuperados por 100000 hab
⇢DAY: 2020/4/2 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
data from https://covid19.isciii.es/
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
[1] "Next 7 days prediction of coronavirus cases in Spain. T. Monleon (BIOST3-UB"
Date.NextDays p.casos p.cum.casos p.casos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
44 2020-04-03 6651 119862 14 7 1 2 8
45 2020-04-04 6204 126066 13 7 1 2 9
46 2020-04-05 5723 131789 12 6 1 2 9
47 2020-04-06 5248 137037 11 6 1 2 10
48 2020-04-07 4793 141830 10 6 1 1 10
49 2020-04-08 4355 146185 9 5 1 1 10
50 2020-04-09 3918 150103 8 4 0 1 10
> # VARIABLES:
> #p.casos (New cases predicted)
> #p.cum.casos (Total cases predicted)
> #p.casos.100hab (New cases predicted by 10e5 hab)
> #p.Hosp (Casos NUEVOS hospitalizados)
> #p.cum.Hosp (Casos totales hospitalizados)
> #p.Hosp.100hab (Casos NUEVOS hospitalizados by 10e5 hab)
> #p.UCI (Casos NUEVOS UCI)
> #p.cum.UCI (Casos totales UCI)
> #p.UCI.100hab (Casos NUEVOS UCI by 10e5 hab)
> #p.death (Casos NUEVOS fallecidos)
> #p.cum.death (Casos totales fallecidos)
> #p.death.100hab (Casos NUEVOS fallecidos by 10e5 hab)
> #p.Recup (Casos NUEVOS recuperados)
> #p.cum.Recup (Casos totales recuperados)
> #p.Recup.100hab (Casos NUEVOS recuperados by 10e5 hab)
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
"Next 7 days prediction of coronavirus cases in CATALONIA. T. Monleon (BIOST3-UB"
Date.NextDays p.casos p.cum.casos p.casos.100hab p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI.100hab p.death.100hab p.Recup.100hab
44 2020-04-03 1722 25544 23 18 2 3 14
45 2020-04-04 1637 27181 22 18 2 3 14
46 2020-04-05 1533 28714 20 16 2 3 15
47 2020-04-06 1415 30129 19 15 1 2 15
48 2020-04-07 1293 31422 17 14 1 2 14
49 2020-04-08 1175 32597 16 12 1 2 14
50 2020-04-09 1058 33655 14 11 1 2 14
> # VARIABLES:
> #p.casos (New cases predicted)
> #p.cum.casos (Total cases predicted)
> #p.casos.100hab (New cases predicted by 10e5 hab)
> #p.Hosp (Casos NUEVOS hospitalizados)
> #p.cum.Hosp (Casos totales hospitalizados)
> #p.Hosp.100hab (Casos NUEVOS hospitalizados by 10e5 hab)
> #p.UCI (Casos NUEVOS UCI)
> #p.cum.UCI (Casos totales UCI)
> #p.UCI.100hab (Casos NUEVOS UCI by 10e5 hab)
> #p.death (Casos NUEVOS fallecidos)
> #p.cum.death (Casos totales fallecidos)
> #p.death.100hab (Casos NUEVOS fallecidos by 10e5 hab)
> #p.Recup (Casos NUEVOS recuperados)
> #p.cum.Recup (Casos totales recuperados)
> #p.Recup.100hab (Casos NUEVOS recuperados by 10e5 hab)
⇢DAY: 2020/4/1 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Deaths in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Cases/Deaths in Spain projection statistics next days:
Date Total_Cases Cases_10e5 Total_Deaths Deaths_10e5
95 2020-04-01 [7354,(CI95%:7352-7356)] 16 [800,(CI95%:798-802)] 2
96 2020-04-02 [7282,(CI95%:7281-7284)] 15 [779,(CI95%:777-781)] 2
97 2020-04-03 [7214,(CI95%:7212-7216)] 15 [757,(CI95%:755-758)] 2
98 2020-04-04 [7107,(CI95%:7106-7109)] 15 [735,(CI95%:733-737)] 2
99 2020-04-05 [6993,(CI95%:6991-6995)] 15 [713,(CI95%:711-715)] 2
100 2020-04-06 [6891,(CI95%:6889-6893)] 15 [693,(CI95%:691-695)] 1
101 2020-04-07 [6716,(CI95%:6714-6718)] 14 [670,(CI95%:668-672)] 1
102 2020-04-08 [6408,(CI95%:6406-6410)] 14 [642,(CI95%:640-644)] 1
103 2020-04-09 [5973,(CI95%:5971-5975)] 13 [605,(CI95%:603-607)] 1
104 2020-04-10 [5483,(CI95%:5481-5485)] 12 [559,(CI95%:557-561)] 1
105 2020-04-11 [5017,(CI95%:5015-5019)] 11 [512,(CI95%:510-514)] 1
106 2020-04-12 [4554,(CI95%:4552-4556)] 10 [467,(CI95%:465-469)] 1
107 2020-04-13 [4097,(CI95%:4095-4099)] 9 [421,(CI95%:419-423)] 1
108 2020-04-14 [3652,(CI95%:3650-3654)] 8 [377,(CI95%:375-379)] 1
109 2020-04-15 [3226,(CI95%:3224-3228)] 7 [334,(CI95%:332-336)] 1
110 2020-04-16 [2824,(CI95%:2822-2826)] 6 [294,(CI95%:292-296)] 1
111 2020-04-17 [2449,(CI95%:2447-2451)] 5 [256,(CI95%:254-258)] 1
112 2020-04-18 [2105,(CI95%:2103-2107)] 4 [221,(CI95%:219-223)] 0
113 2020-04-19 [1792,(CI95%:1790-1794)] 4 [189,(CI95%:187-191)] 0
114 2020-04-20 [1512,(CI95%:1510-1514)] 3 [160,(CI95%:158-162)] 0
# VARIABLES:
# "Date=Next days prediction"; "Total_Cases=Cases for Catalonia",
# "Cases_10e5=Cases for Catalonia in 100000 hab";"Severity_10e5=Severity Cases for Catalonia in 100000 hab";
# "Total_Deaths=Total deaths for Catalonia";"Deaths_10e5 = Deaths for Catalonia in 100000 hab"
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Cases in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Deaths in Catalonia projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
| ||||
| Date.NextDays p.casos p.cum.casos p.casos.100hab p.Hosp p.Hosp.100hab p.UCI p.UCI.100hab p.death p.death.100hab p.Recup p.Recup.100hab
43 2020-04-02 1554 24021 21 1178 16 137 2 246 3 1011 13
44 2020-04-03 1371 25392 18 1059 14 124 2 250 3 1084 14
45 2020-04-04 1171 26563 16 912 12 109 1 258 3 1178 16
46 2020-04-05 1002 27565 13 772 10 94 1 275 4 1308 17
47 2020-04-06 841 28406 11 643 9 80 1 306 4 1473 20
48 2020-04-07 692 29098 9 530 7 65 1 339 5 1609 21
49 2020-04-08 561 29659 7 430 6 52 1 360 5 1663 22
VARIABLES: p.casos (New cases predicted) p.cum.casos (Total cases predicted) p.casos.100hab (New cases predicted by 10e5 hab) p.Hosp (Nuevos casos hospitalizados) p.Hosp.100hab (Nuevos casos hospitalizados by 10e5 hab) p.UCI (Nuevos casos UCI) p.UCI.100hab (Nuevos casos UCI by 10e5 hab) p.death (Nuevos casos fallecidos) p.death.100hab (Nuevos casos fallecidos by 10e5 hab) p.Recup (Nuevos casos recuperados) p.Recup.100hab (Nuevos casos recuperados by 10e5 hab) | ||||
⇢DAY: 2020/3/31 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Cases in Spain projection:
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Deaths in Spain projection:
Efron.r.squared>0.9 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
"Next 20 days prediction of coronavirus cases in Catalonia. T. Monleon (BIOST3-UB"
"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
Date Total_Cases Cases_10e5 Severity_10e5 Total_Deaths Deaths_10e5
37 2020-04-01 [1580,(CI95%:1578-1582)] 21 0 [265,(CI95%:263-267)] 4
38 2020-04-02 [1563,(CI95%:1561-1565)] 21 0 [294,(CI95%:292-296)] 4
39 2020-04-03 [1548,(CI95%:1546-1550)] 21 0 [314,(CI95%:312-316)] 4
40 2020-04-04 [1641,(CI95%:1639-1643)] 22 0 [332,(CI95%:330-333)] 4
41 2020-04-05 [1819,(CI95%:1817-1821)] 24 1 [350,(CI95%:348-352)] 5
42 2020-04-06 [2060,(CI95%:2058-2062)] 27 2 [376,(CI95%:374-378)] 5
43 2020-04-07 [2140,(CI95%:2138-2142)] 29 3 [430,(CI95%:428-432)] 6
44 2020-04-08 [2142,(CI95%:2140-2144)] 29 3 [542,(CI95%:540-544)] 7
45 2020-04-09 [2155,(CI95%:2153-2157)] 29 3 [692,(CI95%:690-694)] 9
46 2020-04-10 [2144,(CI95%:2142-2146)] 29 3 [796,(CI95%:794-798)] 11
47 2020-04-11 [2107,(CI95%:2105-2109)] 28 3 [840,(CI95%:838-842)] 11
48 2020-04-12 [2078,(CI95%:2076-2080)] 28 2 [853,(CI95%:851-855)] 11
49 2020-04-13 [2054,(CI95%:2052-2056)] 27 2 [853,(CI95%:851-855)] 11
50 2020-04-14 [2011,(CI95%:2009-2013)] 27 2 [851,(CI95%:849-853)] 11
51 2020-04-15 [1950,(CI95%:1948-1952)] 26 2 [879,(CI95%:877-881)] 12
52 2020-04-16 [1870,(CI95%:1868-1872)] 25 2 [851,(CI95%:849-853)] 11
53 2020-04-17 [1772,(CI95%:1770-1774)] 24 1 [816,(CI95%:814-818)] 11
54 2020-04-18 [1657,(CI95%:1655-1659)] 22 1 [776,(CI95%:774-778)] 10
55 2020-04-19 [1522,(CI95%:1520-1524)] 20 0 [731,(CI95%:729-733)] 10
56 2020-04-20 [1375,(CI95%:1373-1377)] 18 -1 [681,(CI95%:680-683)] 9
"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
VARIABLES:
"Date=Next days prediction"; "Total_Cases=Cases for Catalonia",
"Cases_10e5=Cases for Catalonia in 100000 hab";"Severity_10e5=Severity Cases for Catalonia in 100000 hab";
"Total_Deaths=Total deaths for Catalonia";"Deaths_10e5 = Deaths for Catalonia in 100000 hab"
"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
⇢DAY: 2020/3/29 extraordinary(+) measures in Spain
New algorithm improved to compute projections
Cases in Spain projection:
Efron.r.squared=0.995 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
"Maximum number of accumulated cases. Mean=147647,CI95% = (147408-147882)"
"Parameters cum cases W(X). c=-59.3,d=13.1,
Time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = day90%=99, day95%=101, day99%=105"
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Deaths in Spain projection:
"Maximum number of accumulated cases. Mean=14252,CI95% = (14014-14482)"
"Parameters cum cases W(X). c=-74.6,d=16.4,
time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases =day90%=98, day95%=100, day99%=102"
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
"Maximum number of accumulated cases. Mean=26135,CI95% = (26021-26374)" "Parameters cum cases W(X). c=-13.6,d=3.9, day90%=42, day95%=45, day99%=50"
Cum Cases for the next days: 
vertical yellow line: today, vetical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Cases for the next days:
vertical yellow line: today, vertical red line: day of inflection in number of cases, vertical green lines: days to reach maximum number of cases (90, 95 and 99%)
Yellow marker: maximum expected 29/3/20 - 31/3/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
magenta line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 1247 1246 1213 1134 1008 861 724 603 493 396 312 241 182)
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 17 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 7 5
⇢DAY: 2020/3/27 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 100000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +94days = first April (90% maximum), +95 days (95% maximum), +97days (99% maximum)). Today = day 89, Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.992 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
BLUE: cum deaths , magenta: cases
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Yellow marker: maximum expected 29/3/20 - 31/3/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
1671 1704 1715 1703 1666 1605 1522 1420 1301 1170
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
1598 1560 1473 1338 1178 1033 897 776 671 576
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
22 23 23 23 22 21 20 19 17 16
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
21 21 20 18 16 14 12 10 9 8
Severity Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
⇢DAY: 2020/3/26 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 100000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +94days = first April (90% maximum), +95 days (95% maximum), +97days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.99 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
red line: cases predicted worst scenario, magenta line: cases predicted average scenario
Yellow marker: maximum expected 28/3/20 - 31/3/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
4013 4429 4644 4579 4194 3518 2654 1765 1009 483
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
2930 3122 3136 2918 2467 1890 1379 860 476 221
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
54 59 62 61 56 47 35 24 13 6
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
39 42 42 39 33 25 18 11 6 3
Severity Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
12 13 14 14 12 9 5 1 0 0
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
6 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0
⇢DAY: 2020/3/25 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 90000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +94days = first April (90% maximum), +94 days (95% maximum), +96days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=1 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Dayly predictions for the next days in Catalonia: 26/3, 27/3, 28/3, ..
Yellow marker: maximum expected 1/4/20 - 3/4/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
1831 2001 2162 2305 2426 2518 2574 2590 2562 2489 2371 2213 2019 1800 1563 1322 1085 864 665 494 354 243 160 101 60 34 18 9
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
1913 2049 2116 2137 2104 2019 1885 1715 1521 1318 1121 939 778 640 522 420 333 258 194 140 98 66 42 26 15 8 4 2
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
24 27 29 31 32 34 34 35 34 33 32 30 27 24 21 18 14 12 9 7 5 3 2 1
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
26 27 28 28 28 27 25 23 20 18 15 13 10 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0
Severity Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 0
⇢DAY: 2020/3/24 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 80000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +107days = May (90% maximum), +111 days (95% maximum), +119days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.912 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Prediction of number of cases for the next days:
Dayly predictions for the next days in Catalonia: 25/3, 26/3, 27/3, ..
Yellow marker: maximum expected 30/3/20 - 1/4/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
2392 2685 2955 3181 3344 3423 3402 3273 3037 2706 2306 1869 1433 1034 697 435 250 131 62 27 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
2309 2468 2540 2521 2414 2240 2023 1788 1545 1301 1056 819 601 414 266 157 85 42 18 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
32 36 39 42 45 46 45 44 40 36 31 25 19 14 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
31 33 34 34 32 30 27 24 21 17 14 11 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Severity Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days:
4 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 0
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days:
4 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0
⇢DAY: 2020/3/23 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 58000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +110days = May (90% maximum), +116 days (95% maximum), +128 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.862 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Prediction of number of cases for the next days:
Dayly predictions for the next days in Catalonia: 24/3, 25/3, 26/3, ..
Yellow marker: maximum expected 1/4/20 - 4/4/20
Total cases prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 1847 2116 2397 2685 2973 3251 3508 3733 3913 4036 4092 4072 3971 3790 3534 3213 2842 2441 2031 1632 1265 941 671 457 296 182 105 58 29 14 6 3)
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days: 1274 1314 1446 1555 1658 1751 1830 1892 1931 1944 1929 1884 1808 1702 1571 1418 1252 1079 907 744 595 466 358 271 203 153 115 88 68 54 42 33)
Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 25 28 32 36 40 43 47 50 52 54 55 54 53 51 47 43 38 33 27 22 17 13 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
[53] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days: 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 19 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )
Severity Cases per 100000 citizens prediction for next days (Catalonia)
red line: worst scenario (Cases next days: 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0)
magenta line: average scenario (worst-best scenarios) (Cases next days: 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )
⇢DAY: 2020/3/22 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 50000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +114days = May (90% maximum), +122 days (95% maximum), +137 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.817 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Prediction of next days cases for Spain with CI95% and maximum number of deaths
red: real cases, magenta: predicted cases (with CI95%), cyan: real cum
deaths , blue: predicted cum deaths, yellow: real deaths.
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Efron.r.squared=0.999 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/21 extraordinary measures in Spain
⇢DAY: 2020/3/20 extraordinary measures in Spain
CUMULATED CASES,
⇢DAY: 2020/3/18 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 50000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +117days = May (90% maximum), +124 days (95% maximum), +137 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.847 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
red:
real cases, magenta: predicted cases (with CI95%), cyan: real cum
deaths , blue: predicted cum deaths, yellow: real deaths.
Prediction for Catalonia : cumulated cases, severity cases and deaths.
Efron.r.squared=0.999 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
Catalonia. Severity and cases by 100000 citizens for the next days
cyan: severity cases real-projected, red: cases real-projected. Number under the line cases estimated by 100000 citizens for the next days.
⇢DAY: 2020/3/20 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 35000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +108days = first-May (90% maximum), +114days (95% maximum), +116 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.825 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
blue line: cases, cyan line: deaths
CASES FOR NEXT WEEKS:
red: real cases, magenta: predicted cases (with CI95%), cyan: real cum deaths , blue: predicted cum deaths, yellow: real deaths. 
⇢DAY: 2020/3/19 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 45000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated cases = +116days = April (90% maximum), +123days (95% maximum), +137 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2019/12/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.822 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
CUMULATED CASES,
blue line: cases, cyan line: deaths
CASES FOR NEXT WEEKS
⇢DAY: 2020/3/18 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 35000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated case s = +83days = April22th(90% maximum), +89 days (95% maximum), +102 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2020/1/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.741 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/17 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 35000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated case s = +83days = April22th(90% maximum), +89 days (95% maximum), +102 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2020/1/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.717 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/16 extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 35000 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated case s = +83days = April22th(90% maximum), +89 days (95% maximum), +101 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2020/1/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.633 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/15: extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 35621 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated case s = +84days = end of April?(90% maximum), +90 days (95% maximum), +101 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2020/1/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.733 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/14: extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [worst scenario]: Maximum cases = 31875 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated case s = +85days = end of April?(90% maximum), +91 days (95% maximum), +101 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2020/1/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.737 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/13: extraordinary measures in Spain
PREDICTION [intermediate scenario]: Maximum cases = 13333.33 (time to reach maximum number of accumulated case s = +79.45days = end of April?(90% maximum), +84.85 days (95% maximum), +94.48 days (99% maximum)). Reference = 2020/1/31 [1st day]
Efron.r.squared=0.556 (parametric model coefficient of determination)
⇢DAY: 2020/3/13:
Prediction of >6000 cases in two weeks, worst scenary 15000 cases
⇢DAY: 2020/3/7:
prediction between 4000-8000 cases
MORE INFORMATION OF PREDICTION, MODELS ABOUT CORONAVIRUS IN SPAIN
2020/03/16
DATA-NEWS
Consult daily data in: https://www.epdata.es/datos/coronavirus-china-datos-graficos/498
Information obtained from
Data from Spain:
Daily evolution in the world: El mapa del coronavirus: así crecen los casos día a día y país por país: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/12/actualidad/1584000830_523359.html
Tots els mapes per seguir l'evolució del coronavirus a Catalunya, Espanya i el món - http://ara.cat/_90009a4c?s=e
Download today’s data on the geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide
Catalonia data of cases, deaths and severity. https://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/198469/grafic/interactiu/aixi/evoluciona/coronavirus/catalunya/dia/dia
Wikipedia. Coronavirus in Spain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Spain
Institute Superiori di Sanita. Statistics of Coronavirus in Italy (Statrification by age and sex):. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/Italy_medical_cases
NEWS & INFORMATIONS
03/05/2020:
Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and
doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst
accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both
nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in
testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase
and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for
further explanation).
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/
15/4/2020 https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-statistics-what-can-we-trust-and-what-should-we-ignore?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
2021/03/21 (Thanks David Serrano): https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4195117/0/asi-crecera-numero-infectados-coronavirus-espana-segun-modelos-matematicos/
2021/03/21 Model of evolution coronavirus in function of statrategy. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
2021/03/21: Mas modelos https://medium.com/@carlosbort/coronavirus-podr%C3%ADa-haber-hasta-100-veces-m%C3%A1s-contagiados-de-los-reportados-7f54cbcdeec
2020/03/20 https://www.consalud.es/pacientes/especial-coronavirus/cuales-grupos-riesgo-coronavirus-indice-mortalidad-presenta-uno_74816_102.html
"El 81% de los casos son leves y superan sin ningún problema
la enfermedad. Es potencialmente peligroso en personas mayores de 80
años o con patologías cardiovasculares, respiratorias o inmunológicas
previas" "Los datos estadísticos aportados por los investigadores chinos del
Equipo Epidemiológico de Respuesta de Emergencia a la Neumonía del Nuevo
Coronavirus, tras analizar más de 70.000 pacientes afectados, apuntan
que el 81% de los casos son leves, el 13,8% son graves y un exiguo 4,7% son críticos. A este último grupo pertenecen los mayores de 80 años, en los que el virus alcanza un 14,8% de mortalidad. Estas son las tasas por grupos de edad: En los afectados de entre 10 y 49 años se ha registrado un índice de mortalidad de entre el 0,2% y 0,4%.
Solo hay tasas superiores al 1% en las personas que mayores de 50 años.
Se eleva al 3,6% en las personas de entre 60 y 69 años y hasta el 8% en
edades comprendidas entre los 70 y los 79 años. Hasta el momento, los
niños parecen estar a salvo de los efectos más graves ya que ninguno ha
fallecido a causa del virus.MÁS HOMBRES QUE MUJERES Este seguimiento muestra que en los grupos más jóvenes la mortalidad
del virus es el doble que la de una gripe común, que ha causado la
muerte a más hombres que mujeres (un 2,8% frente a un 1,7%), y que
afecta especialmente a las personas con enfermedades previas,
sobre todo de tipo cardiovascular (un 10% de la mortalidad), diabetes
(un 7,3% de mortalidad) y afecciones respiratorias crónicas (un 6,3%).2021/03/21 Model of evolution coronavirus in function of statrategy. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
- Los contagiados reales pueden ser del orden de 500.000 personas. Esto es, 100 veces más de los actuales confirmados a fecha 17 de marzo.
- La capacidad de realizar el test no crece a la misma velocidad que los contagios. Por eso el crecimiento de contagiados diagnosticado es cuasi-imposible que siga una exponencial.
- Intentar calcular el valor de contagiados real exacto es imposible, porqué deberíamos realizar tests a todos los ciudadanos. No sabemos el valor real. Una forma de aproximarla sería enfocar el problema como uno de muestreo aleatorio y buscar una muestra representativa. Metodología de encuestas.
- Los modelos son muy sensibles a los parámetros estimados. Para entenderlo en más detalle y cómo se suaviza la exponencial a la logística, este video lo explica.
- Muchas de las hipótesis actuales están realizadas con papers de médicos chinos. Los hospitales Españoles que están padeciendo la crisis están desbordados salvando vidas y la recogida de datos cae obviamente en otro plano. Cualquier ayuda que se pueda hacer en este tema, bienvenida.
- Ministerio de Sanidad, ¡necesitamos más datos por favor!
2021/03/21: Mas modelos https://medium.com/@carlosbort/coronavirus-podr%C3%ADa-haber-hasta-100-veces-m%C3%A1s-contagiados-de-los-reportados-7f54cbcdeec
2020/03/20 https://www.consalud.es/pacientes/especial-coronavirus/cuales-grupos-riesgo-coronavirus-indice-mortalidad-presenta-uno_74816_102.html
Si analizamos los datos en conjunto, todo ello resulta en una mortalidad general del 2,3%, una cifra que se alinea con los datos que ya se venían manejando. No obstante, La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) ha informado que esa tasa de mortalidad se corresponde más con la realidad de Wuhan que con la del resto del mundo, donde el índice se queda en un 0,7%."
2020/03/18. Climical trial solidarity WHO. What is the best strategy to stop coronavirus? https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200318/ensayo-clinico-mundial-tratamiento-mas-eficaz-coronavirus-7895656
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200318/474249568746/oms-marcha-ensayo-clinico-mundial-tratamiento-eficaz-coronavirus.html
2020/03/17: Imperial College of London prediction https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-03-17/un-informe-advierte-de-que-las-medidas-de-distanciamiento-social-podrian-ser-necesarias-hasta-18-meses.html
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
"Los autores analizan con modelos epidemiológicos las dos
estrategias contra el coronavirus que hay sobre la mesa: la de
mitigación, planteada en un primer momento por Reino Unido
para ralentizar, pero no detener, la propagación de la epidemia, y la
de supresión de la transmisión, como se intenta ahora en España y en
Italia con medidas drásticas de encierro en los hogares y el ejército en
las calles.
Los científicos, liderados por el epidemiólogo Neil Ferguson,
recomiendan la estrategia de supresión, pero advierten de que será
necesario “mantener las medidas, al menos de manera intermitente,
mientras el virus circule por la población o hasta que haya una vacuna
disponible”. En el caso de la Covid-19, “se necesitarán al menos unos
12-18 meses antes de que tengamos una vacuna”. Además, alertan, “no hay
garantía de que las primeras vacunas tengan una eficacia alta”. Este
lunes empezó un ensayo clínico de una posible vacuna llevado a cabo por los Institutos Nacionales de la Salud de EE UU y la empresa biotecnológica Moderna."
2020/03/17:Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
More cases than confirmed,
2020/03/17: New paper in Scence (Thanks Noelia Fernandez and Jordi García !)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221
Abstract: Estimation
of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus
(SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall
prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use
observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with
mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian
inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated
with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and
their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were
undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel
restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented
infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to
their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source
for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid
geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus
will be particularly challenging.
2020/03/16: "Hay muchos modelos matemáticos que simulan el comportamiento de el
Covid-19 y tratan de predecir su evolución. No se han pronunciado
claramente al respecto de la estacionalidad. Los epidemiólogos solemos
decir que todos estos modelos están equivocados, pero algunos son
útiles. La estacionalidad supondría que el nuevo coronavirus se quedase
entre nosotros y reapareciese cada temporada, probablemente con algunas
características distintas en años sucesivos, en los que habría también
más población inmune. Si esta nueva enfermedad se comporta o no como una
enfermedad estacional, lo sabremos sólo cuando llegue la primavera" . Dr A. Trilla 2020/03/16: Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak - Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/global-time-varying-transmission.html
Scenarios simulation with 200 people coronavirus infection (scenario 1: with social contact, without confinement, scenario 2 no social contact, confinement)
Scenario 1: with social contact, without confinement,Asymptotic curve with exponential growth of great slope
Scenario 2 no social contact, confinement. Asymptotic curve with exponential growth with little slope
2020/03/15 Prediction coronavirus using Kalman filter: https://towardsdatascience.com/using-kalman-filter-to-predict-corona-virus-spread-72d91b74cc8
2020/03/16:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html
Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests
Two
cases detected weeks apart in Washington State had genetic links,
suggesting that many more people in the area may be infected.
2020/03/15 Here's How Fast the Coronavirus Could Infect Over 1 Million Americans. https://time.com/5801726/coronavirus-models-forecast/
Video about measures adopted in Spain:
|
Probabilistic gaussian models and simulations can help authorities to deal with coronavirus:
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RESEARCH GROUP BIOST3 - UNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA. FACULTY OF BIOLOGY
amonleong@ub.edu http://www.fbg.ub.edu/investigadors/grups-recerca-ub/estadistica-clinica-biodiversitat/
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